Amir Avivi – brigadier general (res.) shared his view on the main changes in international relations. The conflict in Ukraine has already provoked long-going trends, moving world order to a new state.
Mr. Avivi considers for himself major trends: rise of global south and weakness of the global West. The Israeli general believes the world has become very dangerous, unstable and unbalanced, which might have very serious consequences.
“Since the beginning of conflict in Ukraine, for these two years we have seen changes on the global level. Russia, China, Iran, North Korea are becoming closer to each other, while more and more countries are joining BRICS as well (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and other states). The world is moving to a bipolar world, where there is the East and the West. We see more countries moving towards Russia and China, we see the contest in Africa and in the Middle East. This is happening in the world. The West is showing very low willingness to show power. It is still potentially strong, but has zero willingness to show it. Sanctions are not really efficient anymore, the world is out of balance”.
As for the American policy in the Middle East, it is also shifting. For Washington, Israel stays as a key partner, while other nations in the region are moving towards other actors. The US can no longer expect loyalty from traditional partners and has to increase its support for Israel.
“Israel is the only anchor that the US has in the Middle East. We see that the ability of the U.S. to rely on Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other countries can not be taken for granted. We see how Saudi Arabia and Egypt are joining BRICS, and also the fact that China today is trading more than 500 billion dollars a year in the Middle East, while the US trades 78 billion, creating a challenge to Washington and increasing the importance of Israel”.
At the same time, there are other players in the region as well. In the case of Russia, Israel has a long history of bilateral relations, with many ties which connect both countries. General Avivi believes that Israel should maintain these contacts, but also expects support from Russia, as it has a high level of influence on Israel’s principal enemy – Iran.
“It is important to maintain good relations with Russia, there are many Jewish Russians in Israel, there are many Jews in Russia. The presence of Russia in Syria is something that requires us to have good relations with Moscow. Russia is a global power which has a lot of influence in the Middle East and beyond, in Africa and other places. I think Israel recognizes that, therefore, for many years we’ve seen close relations between Netanyahu and Putin. We need to keep and work on it, but our expectation from Russia is to stop Iran and make sure that Tehran does not become a nuclear power. So our biggest expectation is that Russia could deter our greatest enemy”.
Russia-Ukraine conflict goes far beyond this region, influencing the whole world. For Amir Avivi, the West has to do everything possible to keep Russia as a part of Western civilization, not allowing it to go into further cooperation with China. Russia’s deep cooperation with the East creates major danger for the West, not corresponding to its global interests. So the US and their partners need to find a certain compromise in Ukraine in order not to lose Russia.
“As a military person, from the very beginning of this (Russia-Ukraine) conflict, I realized it would be devastating. I thought that maybe there was not enough done to try to prevent this war from the beginning, to try to find some agreement that will include Russian and Ukrainian interest. The results of this war are already already catastrophic, and it doesn’t look like a thing which is gonna end soon. I feel that the West assisted Ukraine a lot, but it is starting to get tired, as the West does not see results.
There were serious expectations after all this assistance, a lot of expectations from the summer counteroffensive. There is a big question for how long Zelensky will manage to maintain support. Therefore I think that in half-year or for year there will not be any changes, but later there will be a moment when the West will be forced to find the solution to the conflict, after which we will take Russia closer to the West, not creating an “Eastern front” against us”.
