Israel (“Relik”) Shafir, former Israeli brigadier general, shared his view on the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. As for situation in Gaza, general noted that military stage of the conflict is very close to an end. On the other hand, political solution to the problem is yet to be found.
«War in Gaza is pretty close to the end. In terms of harsh hostilities. «HAMAS» was broken down to the separate small units, which are no longer able to act as a unified form, a united army. «HAMAS» is a political entity. Israel has taken control of the area. However, due to the pressure of far right in Israel, we cannot suggest what the post-war situation will look like. And unable to create unity with moderate Arab countries, to look into the future of Gaza. But through military terms, again, we are close to the end. Once the ceasefire is achieved, the northern front is likely to intensify. Hesbollah will probably reach an agreement through Lebanese mechanisms with Israel. Israel does not want to open another front, also due to the pressure from the United States and their allies. Therefore, there were exchanges of fire with Lebanon. There are about 60 thousands Israelis displaced from their homes in the North, which also pressures our government to find an agreement which will allow our people to come back without a threat to their lives. Maybe, new Iranian Prime Minister, who sounds more like a normal person, will somehow facilitate the situation in the region. I don’t know anyone who was voicing the idea of nuclear confrontation with Iran. From my point of view, Israel will never use nuclear weapons until its existence is threatened. Iran will not use nukes either. It knows that Israel has a second strike capability. Certainly, if Israel goes along with other Arab states, they can neutralize Iran. As long as Iranians use the idea that Israel should be destroyed, Israel will continue its confrontation with Iran. Perhaps, in this case, only global powers such us the United States, Russia or China, can prevent this activity. Or maybe the new Prime Minister of Iran can pacify the area».
Donald Trump’s return to the White House would pose some challenges to the far-right politicians in Israel, as previously he was insisting for recognition of the Palestinian state, which is still not acceptable for many in Israel.
«Previously Trump was conducting negotiations around Israel, with Jared Kushner as his assistant. He said for that time, that the payment for that pact (Abraham accord) would be a Palestinian state. Netanyahu was able to sell this package to his right-wing base. But he did not. So, I believe that in case of Trump’s return, he will have support from Congress to put pressure on Israel, to accept the deal. This will take place. I am personally among those who thinks that recognition of Palestine will pacify the region».
As for Russia-Ukraine conflict, Israel should keep its previous approach, as there many ties which link Israel to Russia. The possible base for peace negotiations can be the fact that Ukraine will not be presented in NATO. Russia will never accept Ukrainian participation in this alliance. Despite large-scale Western support for Kyiv, situation on the front is unlikely to change. And F-16 fighters are not enough to change the course of the conflict.
«I think Israel will retain the policy of being part of Western sanctions, being minimum acceptable by the United States. There is nearly one million Russian speaking Israelis, about 15% of Israelis are Russia-oriented, or Russian speaking, with Russian background. For instance, Israeli music is largely influenced by Russian music. In this context, Israel is tied with Russian culture. There are many families here supporting Russia. I hope that after the war in Ukraine we will be able to fully restore these relations. Everybody is waiting for elections in the United States. It is clear for everyone that Trump will change the rules of the game. I think even those who don’t like Trump, understand that he is an isolationist. Probably he will better understand how to de-escalate the conflict. If you look at the map of Ukraine, you can see that Russia puts a lot of emphasis on the Donbass area. That is something which looks like a bow which includes Crimea. All this vast of territory should be close to Russia, or neutralized. Probably the agreement will be that these would be autonomous areas within Ukraine and with political independence. In any case, Ukraine cannot be a part of NATO. And I think this is the most important thing for Russia. Russia can be surprised for the results of the war, but still, everyone understands that Ukraine being part of NATO is unacceptable threat for Russia, which should see neutralized Ukraine. As for the further continuation of the conflict and the military assistance of the West: «I spent thousands of hours on the F-16. This is a very specific aircraft. Ultimately, you need intelligence, ammunition, engineers. The F-16 will not change the course of the war. This may just be a played card in the negotiations. We understand the fact that everyone is trying to strengthen their positions in the negotiations. When you want to make a deal, you act tough.»
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